Data

One method change, one shifted mean

Switching a protocol from non-bone-pressed to bone-pressed, or from stretched to erect, moves an entire study's mean by an amount that dwarfs its confidence interval.

By Updated 4 min readData

Guides on Data: Meta-analysis statistics, start to finish, Reading a size study critically, How a size study is built, Reading a nomogram without fooling yourself, The Veale meta-analysis, read properly

A change of protocol can move a study's mean by a centimetre or more, with no change in the population at all. That shift is systematic, not random: it applies to every participant in the same direction, so it does not shrink with sample size the way sampling noise does.

Random error shrinks with more people, systematic error does not

A confidence interval narrows as a study enrols more participants, because it is bounding how far the sample mean is likely to sit from the true population mean given random variation between individuals. A protocol difference is not random variation between individuals. It applies to every participant in the same direction, every time, so no amount of additional enrolment corrects for it - a larger sample measured the wrong way just gives you a more confident estimate of the wrong quantity.

One sample, two protocols

The cleanest illustration measures the same men both ways. In Habous et al. (2015), Journal of Sexual Medicine, clinicians measured 778 men after an injection-induced erection: mean length from the suprapubic skin to the tip was 12.53 cm (SD 1.93), and from the pubic bone to the tip 14.34 cm (SD 1.86). Same men, same visit - the gap between those means has nothing to do with sampling error. It comes from the pre-pubic fat pad, which hides part of the shaft from a ruler resting on the skin; the same study found a weak negative correlation between BMI and skin-to-tip length, but not bone-to-tip length. That is the effect the bone-pressed method is built to control for, and two separate studies using the two protocols would show it as a whole-sample shift.

Why this is why methods sections matter more than sample size

A reader comparing two published means without reading the methods section is comparing two numbers that may not be measuring the same thing. Sample size tells you how precisely a study estimated its own mean. It tells you nothing about whether that mean is comparable to a different study's mean, which is a question the protocol answers and the confidence interval cannot. Not every study in the pooled literature specifies bone-pressed measurement consistently, which is exactly this problem showing up inside a single meta-analysis rather than between two separate papers.

The same logic applies to stretched versus erect

A study reporting stretched flaccid length and one reporting erect length are also not directly comparable means, even though stretched length correlates reasonably well with erect at the individual level - Wessells et al. (1996), Journal of Urology, found it the closest predictor of erect length in 80 men. In a multi-observer study of 201 men by Habous et al. (2015), stretched length undershot erect length by a mean of 2.64 cm (21.4%). The average gap between the two states, applied across an entire sample, produces the same kind of coherent, whole-sample shift as the bone-pressed change does - it just runs along a different methodological axis. Why studies disagree with each other more broadly covers population, instrument and state alongside method; this post is about the mechanism by which one changed variable moves an entire mean rather than just adding noise around it.

Why this fools careful readers, not just careless ones

The trap here is not a reader skipping the methods section out of laziness - it is that two well-designed, well-powered studies can each be internally excellent and still produce means that should not be placed side by side. Nothing about statistical rigor within a study protects against a difference introduced by the protocol itself. A reader who checks sample size, confidence interval and p-values, and stops there, has checked everything except the one thing that actually explains the gap.

What to check before comparing two means

Read the methods section, or at minimum the state and landmark description, before treating two published averages as comparable. A confidence interval answers "how precisely did this study estimate its own number." It does not answer "is this study's number the same kind of number as that other study's number," and conflating the two is the single most common way a size figure gets misread.

This is a distinctly different problem from the ones a rating platform runs into. Rate Cock produces a photo-based rating rather than a measured mean, so a shift in scoring criteria there changes what a score represents in a more direct, immediate way than a measurement protocol does. Penis Rater is upfront that its tools are scoring instruments rather than measuring instruments, and the same distinction applies to a human's opinion on Rate Penis or an AI system's read of a photo on AI Penis - none of the three are quoting a mean length at all, so this specific failure mode does not touch them, though each has its own version of the same underlying lesson: know what produced the number before you compare it to another one.

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